Foreshadowing in Fiction Tricks to Keep Your Readers Guessing - Freewrite Store

Foreshadowing in Fiction Tricks to Keep Your Readers Guessing - Freewrite Store Types of Foreshadowing As literary devices go, foreshadowing is a technique that every writer needs to have in their toolbox. Everyone from literary greats like William Shakespeare and J.K. Rowling to screenplay masters like Alfred Hitchcock has used foreshadowing to create gripping plot twists that leave insightful readers (and viewers) experiencing that satisfying ‘ah-ha’ moment.If you’re not quite sure exactly what foreshadowing is, then here’s a definition: Foreshadowing creates tension or adds suspense to your story, by laying a kind of trail of breadcrumbs that your readers may (or may not) pick up on. If you’ve read a good novel recently, it’s likely that the author threw in some elements of foreshadowing. When you’re reading, foreshadowing is found in seemingly random or innocent scenes that only make sense when the plot begins to be resolved.When you’re writing, however, there’s nothing random or innocent about foreshadowing. You have to plan elements of foreshadowing so that they don’t appear too obvious - but nor do you want them to be so subtle that none of your readers pick up on the juicy breadcrumbs that you’re leaving for them. So, how does foreshadowing work when you’re writing? Types of Foreshadowing Every author has their own style of writing - so the exact way that you approach foreshadowing will depend on your style. However, there are two main types of foreshadowing that you can use in your stories - direct foreshadowing and indirect foreshadowing. Direct Foreshadowing If you want to keep your readers hooked, then direct foreshadowing is a great way to go about it. As its name implies, the kinds of hints (or breadcrumbs) you drop into your story are like little nuggets of information that prompt your readers to ponder about how those nuggets fit into the story and where they might ultimately lead. Clever and intuitive readers may even be able to guess how the plot will be resolved because of direct foreshadowing.Within direct foreshadowing, there are different subtypes that you can use, such as: Pre-scene This is a really popular type of foreshadowing. These scenes are often short and relatively downplayed, but reveal something that will turn out to be essential for a plot twist or resolution later in the story. Readers often become really adept at spotting the pre-scenes, so if you want to use these successfully you need to be careful not to give too much away. Effective pre-scenes convey necessary information but compel your readers to keep reading to either find out why the details are important or to see whether their suspicions are correct.For example, in your novel, you could have a scene that opens in a crowded bar. Your hero sits at the bar, enjoying his drink and the company of a beautiful young woman. Finishing his drink, your hero gets up to visit the restroom. Immediately, another man approaches the young woman and slips her a piece of paper before leaving the bar. Your hero returns, the couple leaves the bar. Your readers instinctively know that the young woman is either involved in something suspicious or not as innocent as she seems - they just don’t know what is going to come of it. Name Dropping If a character is later going to play a really important role in your story, or a particular place is going to be significant, name dropping can foreshadow the future events and signal to the reader that this character or place is important. They won’t know why it’s important, but it’s another breadcrumb that you’re leaving for them.For example, if you have your hero remark to another character that he’s going to visit a friend the next day, but doesn’t name the friend or the place, your readers wouldn’t really think much about it. If, on the other hand, your hero says, instead, that he’s meeting Charlie McGuiness at Holy Rood Chapel, then your readers are more likely to recognize these details as being in some way significant. Prophecy This is an old type of foreshadowing that has been used by the likes of Orson Welles and William Shakespeare. Essentially, it’s a way of directly telling your readers that there’s going to be a specific kind of dramatic event occurring at some point. Some writers see this is an outdated and counterintuitive practice, so it isn’t as common as it used to be - but it can still be powerful. You’re telling your readers that something specific is going to happen - but they don’t know when, or how, or what other surprises you have in store, so you keep them locked in a sense of anticipation.Here’s an example, from William Shakespeare’s Macbeth (Act 1, Scene 3): "All hail, Macbeth, thou shalt be king hereafter![†¦]Lesser than Macbeth, and greater.Not so happy, yet much happier.Thou shalt get kings, though thou be none:So all hail, Macbeth and Banquo!Banquo and Macbeth, all hail!" Indirect Foreshadowing If you’re more interested in subtlety than feeding your readers clues, then indirect foreshadowing is the way to go. You’re in control over the level of subtlety, and with this type of foreshadowing, although your readers may recognize the breadcrumbs as significant, they’re not likely to be able to figure out exactly what you’re hinting at. Personally, as both a reader and a writer, I find indirect foreshadowing more rewarding. In the modern age of social media, some direct foreshadowing looks more like clickbait and I prefer to be more subtle when I’m writing. Let’s look at some types of indirect (subtle) foreshadowing: Innocuous Statements These are the type of foreshadowing that may stick in your readers’ minds but only make sense when all is revealed later in the story. It’s less likely to cause your readers to be gripped, but when you have established yourself as a writer and have a following of fans, your fans will pride themselves on being able to spot the innocuous statements that you drop into your writing and try to guess what the outcome will be.Here’s an example of innocuous statements at work. In Star Wars: Episode II, Obi-Wan Kenobi remarks to Anakin Skywalker: â€Å"Why do I get the feeling, you will be the death of me?†. It’s only later in the series that the hidden foreshadowing makes sense. Pathetic Fallacy When I first came across this term I honestly had no idea what it could mean. Once I figured it out, however, it became one of my favorite subtle foreshadowing techniques. Pathetic fallacy refers to the way that you can give human emotions to things that are not human - like the weather, for example.There are tons of ways that you can use this technique to foreshadow future events. An icy gust of wind may be used to evoke a sense of foreboding or convey that something chilling is going to happen, for example. Likewise, a rainbow appearing during a ferocious storm may suggest that there is a change coming, or something more positive will emerge out of trouble.Charles Dickens uses the weather in Great Expectations to convey something of what the hero, Pip, is feeling. Can you figure out what Dickens is trying to foreshadow?:"So furious had been the gusts, that high buildings in town had had the lead stripped off their roofs; and in the country, trees had been torn up, and sails of wind mills carried away; and gloomy accounts had come in from the coast, of shipwreck and death." Object Placement Famously, Anton Chekhov once declared that â€Å"If in Act One you have a pistol hanging on the wall, then it must fire in the last act†. While he was undoubtedly referring to playwriting, the same applies to any kind of story - and, ultimately, this is a tool that can be used to foreshadow really effectively.What this means is that if you have something pretty huge happening late on in the story, you can foreshadow it really subtly by making some kind of allusion to it early on. In Chekhov’s example, you would put some kind of emphasis on a pistol that would later be pivotal to the plot. This is a hugely popular technique - you surely must have read a book (or ten) where there’s a mention of an object that doesn’t really seem to make total sense in the current scene, but then, later, you get that ah-ha moment of realizing, â€Å"oh, that’s why it was there!†There are different ways you can use this technique, too. Let’s look at a coup le of examples:ââ€"  Your hero is driving to the airport to pick up his fiance who is returning from an overseas business trip. He’s talking to his business partner on the phone and glances at the fuel gauge, which reads close to empty and then continues with his conversation. In this scene, it’s more the absence of something (i.e. a full fuel tank) that you’re foreshadowing. You could use this with medication bottles, or show your character forgetting an object, too.ââ€"  Your heroine is sitting at her desk in her university office, grading term papers. Her pen runs out, and she opens a drawer to get a new one. In the drawer, there’s an unopened envelope, yellow with age, with a name written on it. She closes the drawer quickly. Your readers will remember the letter - but they don't know why it’s important. Effective Use of Foreshadowing The type of foreshadowing that you use and the way that you use it will depend on what you want to achieve with it. Looking to build suspense? Then you should use more direct foreshadowing (so your reader’s don’t miss the clues). If you want to foreshadow a future event, however, it’s best to take a more subtle approach with indirect foreshadowing.One mistake that many writers make is using too much foreshadowing. A little bit of foreshadowing is better than a lot of it if you use it well. That means you need to get more selective about what you use foreshadowing for, and where in your story you use it.Major turning points in your story should be your foreshadowing priority. There are usually around 3 turning points in a story arc: the point at which your character’s life is affected by something in a significant way; the midpoint in the story arc where your character starts to question themselves in some existential kind of way; and the climax of the stor y.Generally, there will be more foreshadowing in the first half of your story, with the ‘ah-ha’ moments coming in the second half. One good means of getting a good balance (and making sure you’re not going overboard on the foreshadowing) is to use a plot diagram to pinpoint the best moments for foreshadowing for the major turning points in your story. Practice Your Technique for Gripping Foreshadowing Don’t expect to master foreshadowing instantly. Masters of suspense like Stephen King and Alfred Hitchcock perfected their craft over many years - so you should expect to spend time practicing your foreshadowing skills. It’s a good idea to try to identify foreshadowing when you’re reading your favorite authors’ novels, too, as that way you’re able to learn from the masters themselves. As you’re reading, ask yourself why their foreshadowing techniques are so effective and practice replicating the techniques yourself.Whether you prefer to use direct or indirect foreshadowing, you can keep your readers guessing and build your confidence until you are a master at foreshadowing, too.

Motivating and Lying Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Motivating and Lying - Essay Example tivation deals with the causes of people’s behavior, it attempts to explain why we behave in the way that we do.† There are instances when a person needs words of encouragement to feel better towards the things that surrounds him. Often, the motivational statements are true however there are times when the statements are false or considered as a lie. When the statement is not yet discovered to be false, the person who the statement was addressed would definitely feel uplifted, inspired and motivated. However, when the falsehood of the statement is exposed, either the person whom the message was addressed to will feel betrayed or used depending on the extent of the events that happened prior to exposure or the statement will be taken as a form of non-sense and the effects of it can be disregarded. Most commonly, it is the instinct theory of motivation which is used especially in the professional aspect of a person’s life. As expressed by Comer & Gould (2012) that â€Å"behavior is motivated by instincts.† Once said it is safe to conclude that there is that concealed motivation within a person. Either these motivation bundles just need some push to be opened or a tickle to function at the right moment. Or there are instances that when a person sees a good opportunity that is when motivation attacks and the person is given more enthusiasm towards certain events. It will be quite disappointing though when a falsehood in a motivational statement is found however when in the long run the â€Å"lie† resulted into a positive action from the person and began to make changes in one’s life, it would not matter anymore because it made realization within the self of one’s capabilities and

Global Market Entry Strategies Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Global Market Entry Strategies - Case Study Example 1. What is the amount of equity being invested by Volvo in the joint venture in China? 45% stake 2. What will be the benefits of the alliance to the Swedish Volvo? a) help the Volvo group to enter the Chinese market, which is the world's largest market for trucks, with a total market for heavy trucks equivalent to the European and North American markets combined 3. What will be the benefits of the alliance to the Chinese Dong Feng? a) The Dongfeng brand will become a global brand 4. What has been the strategy of the Chinese government for entry of foreign firms into the country? Passenger cars, in which it allows foreign companies access to China's fast-growing consumer and commercial markets only if they create joint ventures with domestic companies and share technology in return. Why? foreign companies give potential rivals a leg up in terms of marketing and technical know-how 5. How large is Dongfeng in China's heavy duty trucks market? Dongfeng already is China's largest maker of heavy-duty trucks. What is its market share of heavy duty trucks in China? 20% market share 6. What problems is the joint venture facing in China? The heavy-truck market has been hit by Beijing's efforts to tamp down on mining and property development. What is the strategy of Volvo to cope with the challenge? reducing vehicle emissions

Conflict Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Conflict - Essay Example Strikes are overt demonstration of employee unrest in the sense that they are a clearly visible form of the demonstration of employee through a collective medium. Covert demonstration of employee unrest on the other hand is not easily discernible as it is an individualistic action that takes different forms like absenteeism and increase in labour turnover. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for loss of working days due to overt demonstration of industrial dispute in the form of strikes show a steady fall in number of strikes and the number of working days lost from 2004 to 2007. This indicates a slow down in employees resorting to the collective demonstration of industrial disputes through strikes. Absenteeism is a temporary withdrawal of work by an employee as an escape valve for the frustrations experienced at the workplace, which is proving costly to industrial productivity on an increasing basis. This can be seen from the estimates in 1998 that put the loss on productivity by absenteeism as $2.6 billion to the Australian industry, while in 2006 the loss increased to almost $7 billion. Industrial employee turnover as a result of employees’ lack of satisfaction at the workplace is also on the rise. Employees change jobs as a covert behaviour in their expression of conflict with their employers.

Feasibility study for adidas clothing stores

Feasibility study for adidas clothing stores This feasibility study for the clothing shop, that is Adidas stores, was conducted over a period of 3 months, from June to September, 2010. The business would operate as a sport brand and located in the most famous business circle, Victoria square, as research and surveys conducted during the feasibility research period indicate that the sport brand and the site would be the most profitable way. The goals of the clothing shop are varied, including satisfying the consumers need, making a profit and consolidate the status of Adidas. And the main mission of the clothing shop is to provide a place and service for local consumers to get high quality sport clothing and make their life more convenient. The feasibility research report contains the 4P analysis, that is, the product, price, promotion, place are analyzed. The strength and competition of the clothing shop are also researched. 2.0 Products and Services 2.1 Products and services description This clothing shop sells Adidas brand sports clothing, offers an excellent environment and service for consumers, and shows a kind of taste and experience an emotion. The aim of the clothing shop is to make it become a good place for leisure shopping. 2.2 Resources and technology Clothing store is a demanding profession requires the size and grade of the industry, products and services, after all, it is a high consumption, the consumer must care the fully reflection of their consumption value. To achieve this, there is a very high demand on the resources of investors, and technology. Joining the brand make it access to sufficient resources, advanced equipment and technology, and importantly, on the other hand, it can avoid a lot of risks. 2.3 Future products and services plans With the shops development and changes in the surrounding environment, the products and services will continue to improve, including more comprehensive new products, better quality and personalized service. The shop will continuously improve under the support of Adidas brand and its own efforts. 3.0 Project Site and Construction Conditions 3.1 Project site The city is a popular one which hosts international and domestic sporting events, such as cricket, South Australia Golf championship, classic car race, bike race. The site is determined at Victoria Square, a famous commercial circle. A survey  [1]  conducted there indicates that people here are willing to buy the product of Adidas, and the percentage of items are shown in figure 1. Figure 1 Market survey 3.2 Construction conditions Economic conditions Adelaides economy is mainly manufacturing, military and research. The city has large manufacturing, military and research area. Holden car, Mitsubishi Group has manufacturing plants in Adelaide, the city also has health equipment and electronic components plant. About half of the cars produced in Australia come from Adelaide  [2]  . Australias largest oil company and the famous brewery is located in Adelaide, its per capita economic growth is higher than the Australian average  [3]  . Adelaide is Australias major arsenal, 70% military industrial company in Australia is located in Adelaide, and its gross domestic product reaches 10 billion Australian dollars. Natural conditions Adelaide is a Mediterranean climate, warm and rainy in winter and drying in summer  [4]  . Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average high temperature °C ( °F) 27.8 (82) 28.4 (83.1) 25.4 (77.7) 22.0 (71.6) 18.7 (65.7) 15.8 (60.4) 15.0 (59) 16.0 (60.8) 18.1 (64.6) 20.9 (69.6) 23.7 (74.7) 26.0 (78.8) Average low temperature  °C ( °F) 15.9 (60.6) 16.2 (61.2) 14.5 (58.1) 11.7 (53.1) 9.7 (49.5) 7.6 (45.7) 7.1 (44.8) 7.7 (45.9) 9.0 (48.2) 10.7 (51.3) 12.8 (55) 14.7 (58.5) Precipitation mm (inch) 20.0 (0.787) 18.3 (0.72) 24.3 (0.957) 36.8 (1.449) 48.9 (1.925) 56.9 (2.24) 64.2 (2.528) 52.5 (2.067) 49.9 (1.965) 43.5 (1.713) 22.7 (0.894) 24.6 (0.969) Figure 2 Average data of Adelaide airport Traffic conditions Adelaide is the important traffic intersection of Australias east-west and north-south direction. The road is always better than many other Australian cities. Adelaides with a name of 20-minute city because the car can reach from the suburbs to the city center within 20 minutes  [5]  . Adelaide International Airport is Australias newest and most advanced airport. 3.3 Supplies Consumption of major materials According to the project scale, this project needs all kinds of garments, including T-shirts, jackets, shorts, pants, shoes, etc., and the annual consumption is shown in the following table. No. Material Unit Annual consumption 1 T-shirts piece 30910 2 Jackets piece 79080 3 Shorts pair 20450 4 Pants pair 54770 5 Shoes pair 76920 Figure 3 Annual consumption of materials (2) Sources of major materials All kinds of raw and auxiliary materials required for the project are internal stock, and hence the supply is adequate. (3) Quality requirment of major materials All the materials needed in the shop is checked according the corresponding standard, and satisfies the need of consumers to assure the product quality. 3.4 Logistics The company is equipped with sufficient storage space, which can be used to solve the storage needs of finished and packing materials  [6]  . Raw materials in warehouse are divided by batch, and establish a strict regime of materials distribution to prevent mixing batches. Transport system adopts advanced third party logistics, which is quick, convenient and cost-saving. 4.0 Investment Objectives and Tasks 4.1 Investment objective Become a leading sports clothing brand in the region, and make it a fashion consumer sites. 3 years to recover the total investment cost, and gradually start making profits. 4.2 Investment tasks (1) Stabilize capital, implement an ideal investment channels for investors and provide them with a stable and reasonable income. (2) Successfully complete the construction and development of brand stores, and gradually make the capital investment to generate income. (3) Use the existing sites to upgrade Adidas brand, increase brand awareness and customer amount to achieve mutually profit. 4.3 The key to success (1) The good cooperation of investors and owners, and the best combination advantages of both resources. (2) Sufficient market demand, active and effective campaign. (3) The location of the grasp. Clothing store is in the address of beauty and in a business circle. 5.0 The Market Analysis 5.1 The market demand Our consumer demand is still relatively ample. On the one hand, there are stable and old customers, on the other hand, there are beautiful natural and relatively stable business district. (1) Stability of the old client resources. This part of the consumer is the natural client resources after the completion of the new brand stores. When they face more appeal, better products and services of the brand stores, they will continually become the loyal customers of the brand. The residential area Enterprises in the region Schools in the region In general, the target consumers are sufficient, but here there is a lack of brand appeal on the scale of the clothing store, we shop here just to fill this market gap. 5.2 Industry development trends (1) The clothing market is growing rapidly  [7]  , and it has become a major trend of consumption, the market early training has ended. (2) The taste of the consumer is becoming increasingly high. The culture charm is the charm of the market. Consumers are starting to cognitive clothing brand, clothing style and know how to enjoy the fun. The rapid development of sports clothing market is closely related to the natural sport interest of the consumer. (3) Education level, family income and frequency of exercise show a significant positive correlation  [8]  . (4) The competition within the industry and associated industries is increasingly intense. There are more and more clothing stores in the city. Meanwhile, other brands of sports clothing are all relevant alternatives. 5.3 Competition comparisons (1) Indirect competition with the strong brand stores. Currently the city has more than 10 sports clothing stores, of which the largest competitor of Adidas, Nike, 4. Peripheral consumer source will be diverted by these indirect competitors. (2) Direct competitors. Some of the other sports clothing in the region is the direct competitors. Their size is not too large, but they have some characteristics, price and quality are good. These stores still have a certain competition. However, peer competition situation, mainly small-scale, has a certain personality clothing store in the region, is good for us. In contrast, our shop has a considerable advantage on brand appeal, management level, product and service quality, scale and finance. The fashion and taste of the clothing shop determine its share of emotional consumption, and consumers are very concerned about the brand and grade factors. This can also explain the large number of consumers prefer to find clothing store downtown. 6.0 Promotion Strategy 6.1 Market strategy Target market The target market contains the regions consumers in the business district, with monthly income of 1,000 $A. The majority are well-educated, and they pursuit fashion and taste, mainly youngster and the middle-aged. Marketing planning Utilize the brand and resources advantages, and establish rapidly the popularity and reputation of Adidas to solid the old consumer source, getting back the consumers attracted by strong brand stores and local specialty shops. Although the Adidas brand is strong, this region is likely to have other strong brand clothing store in the future. Therefore, we must use all the opportunities and resources now, making a good service marketing and more personalized service, build our own brand to consolidate the customer loyalty. 6.2 Promotion The most important thing is to make the shop known by the consumers nearby as quickly as possible. (1) Advertising For district residents, deliver fine single-page advertisement and small gifts, one-page form can also be made the form of discount vouchers. (2) Event marketing Hold student party and reading activities. Contact the Universitys student union and several important regional organizations; hold a number of salon parties and school activities and this is helpful in raising quality to attract students and young consumers. When the time is ripe, we can also organize an activity with movement and life as the theme of the essay writing. (3) Service marketing Besides brand identity, service for clothing is also important to consumers. To do this, more personalized service is needed. Establish membership card. Members name is printed on the card, such as bank card. Membership card discount rate was not high, such as 9.8 fold. However, on the one hand, it can give consumers a sense of respectability, and on the other hand, it is easy for attendant to call the consumers. Especially if consumers and other people are together, and the attendants can publicly call him (her) Mr. (Miss), they will feel they are respected and welcomed. (4) Personalized service Put some promotional materials in the table, and the content of which is about the knowledge and stories of the Adidas. On the one hand, it can enhance the taste and the atmosphere, and on the other hand, it can increase the favorable impression of consumers. For many consumers who come together, we can explain the brand with specialized person. If they are interested, you can introduce the brand name, the origin and other relevant knowledge to them. 7.0 Financial Plan 7.1 Financial overview No. Name Amount ($A) 1 Rent 650,000 / year 2 Joining fees 200 00/ year 3 Decoration and reconstruction 60 000 4 Salaries 40,000 / month 5 Water and electricity 10,000 / month 6 Other costs 10,000 / month 7 Other charges 50 000 Figure 4 Financial overview 7.2 Device configuration No. Device type Name Quantity Unit price ($A) Total price ($A) 1 Business equipment Container 2 1200 2400 2 TV 2 6000 12000 3 Computer 2 4000 8000 4 Sofa 3 5000 15000 5 Cash register 2 3000 6000 6 Office Equipment Air conditioner 3 3000 9000 7 telephone 2 200 400 8 Fax machine 1 1500 1500 9 Printer 1 1500 1500 Total 18 55880 Figure 5 Device configuration expenditure

His taints and honours waged equal with him? Essay -- essays research

Philo, one of Antony’s loyal friend and partner in war, has seen Antony going from one respectable soldier to then abandoning his everything about the empire upon meeting Cleopatra. He is not confident into which category Antony fits into. (5.1) Many roles are played by Antony; therefore we see different sides of the argument. Antony can claim greatness for serving the needs of his country and his empire as fighter and as a leader. He can be seen as equal as Caesar, as he commits suicide, seen as a honourable thing to do. Antony’s once loyal and heroic background all changes when he comes across Cleopatra. A once great military reader is now in decline due to her charm and bewitching nature. The first sign we see this occurring is when Philo says the temple pillar of the world transformed into the strumpet’s fool (1.1). In differences between Roman and Alexandrian ways of life has a big influence on Antony’s behaviour and each view of Antony’s â₠¬Å"taints and honours† very differently. Shakespeare could be seen as using shock tactics to challenge the audiences of the time such as Antony’s suicide, which is a grave crime for the Protestant religions of that period. Different audiences will tend to view Antony’s behaviour differently.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Philo complains that Antony has abandoned the military endeavours. Antony was the military hero and disciplined statesman, but seems to have happily abandoned his reason in order to pursue his passion. He himself says, â€Å"here I am Antony, yet cannot hold this visible shape† (4.14). He, right after this, declares that, â€Å"let in Tiber melt and the wide arch of the ranged empire fall!†(1.1) Therefore, at this early stage, on the evidence provided, the audiences have already seen how badly Antony has switched to another side of himself. They now are aware that his taints now far outweigh his past honours in Roman eyes. Antony tried very hard to fight the conflict between public duty and private life. The fist such example one sees when Antony returns to Rome to fight against Pompey, as Antony describes it, â€Å"Our quick remove from hence†(1.2). This sense of duty creates anxiety for Cleopatra, as in the following scene we see her asking Alexas for his whereabouts, â€Å" see where he is, who’s with him, what he does†.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Antony falsely marries Octavia, thus bringing in another woman ... .... This will already give Antony a bad name, negative role, and identity. However Shakespeare first designed the play as, a â€Å"tragedy†. By indicating its dramatic genre, the audience will in the end see how Antony can be a hero serving his domain, country people and see to the extent his honourable death.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The argument to what extent makes Antony honourable or not is extremely complex, with equal evidence on both sides. Antony as an honourable figure is backed up by his loyal soldiers at the very beginning by his closely followed friends in and out of war, Enobarbus and Philo, who speaks the quote, being two of his most trusted companions and followers.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  However arguments against Antony is particularly from Cleopatra and Caesar’s attendants and servants. However Caesar, to a degree, did fully support Antony before his â€Å"let in Tiber melt†, Octavia and his â€Å"hand to hand combat† and in the end, declares this (5.1). So, in conclusion, with the support of Enobarbus his loyal support and in the opposite ends of the time scale, Caesar, Antony is very much holds an admirable past rather than his apparent downfallen soldier he was.

Bicentennial Man

Bicentennial Man is a film that depicts philosophical musings in a science fiction story. It relays the story of a robot named Andrew Martin and his unique sense of self-awareness as he discovers the remarkable qualities of humanity, and how such exposure seizes him to aspire for human-likeness.It lingers on the idea of free will, which struggles to find its place in the being of Andrew, a robot who can rationalize things. The movie’s premise revolves on the concept of humanity and how an object such as a robot could be considered as a rational being, rather than what it was originally intended to be which was to serve human beings.The film goes through the motions of Andrew’s arrival in the Martin family and the interactions he had experienced toward them that contributed to his fascination about humans. As the story progresses, Andrew becomes immersed in his ability to fully understand the human condition that he becomes like one.The dilemma in this film is seen when Andrew attempts to insist upon his human-likeness by behaving in a rational manner, which agitates human beings who do not understand his exceptionality. Analysis At the beginning of the film, it was projected that Andrew’s sole purpose was to serve and obey the Martin family.Like all robots, Andrew’s function was to cater to the needs of the humans he was assigned to serve. The political theorist, Jeremy Bentham, describes this relation as the concept of utilitarianism. Bentham explains that the utilization of an object or individual is relative to the benefit, advantage, pleasure, good, or happiness produced by the object or individual for the party concerned.In its simplest terms, it defines the use of an object, or even individuals, as a means to an end. The purpose of using anything depends on the notion of pleasure and pain as the former is seen as good while the latter is seen as evil (Nelson 205).The fundamental principle of utilitarianism derives its condition from the assumption that individuals act according to their own self-interest which sought pleasure and avoided pain. This line of thinking anticipates an individual’s actions or behavior since it recognizes the imperfection of humanity and how individuals need objects or other human beings to survive (Nelson 207- 210).In the context of the film, Andrew’s initial role was merely a utility that produced pleasure or happiness for the Martin family. This was shown when the family ordered him to do things for them, which was exactly what he was intended for.However, over the course of his interactions with the members of the Martin family, especially with the youngest daughter Amanda, Andrew became more self-aware of his state and his comprehension of the beings he was obligated to. Mr. Martin’s influence on the growth of knowledge that Andrew received through the books he was given to read and the conversation pieces that they had, created a lasting impact on Andr ew’s capability to understand and imitate the complexities of humanity. Andrew developed a unique consciousness that led him on a quest for self-realization.He had demonstrated a capacity to function beyond his means, through the creation of objects by carving, his fondness for music that led him to learn how to play the piano and his special interest in the human condition. His ability to develop creativity on his own volition, which is considered a human trait, places him in an awkward light that dimly reflects the uncertainty of his being. The concept of free will clearly operates in this section of the film as it portrays Andrew’s ability to reason and act in reference to the way he understands his situation.Immanuel Kant defines free will as a direct experience of reality brought about by introspection. It relies on the faculty of volition that pushes an individual to decide or act on something without being coerced to do it (Nelson 117).Andrew had demonstrated th e concept of free will in the scene where he asked Mr. Martin if he could obtain his freedom. This correlates with Kant’s discussion about how freedom is seen as autonomous. Kant defines the laws governing autonomy as conditions under which the will of one individual could be combined with those of others, according to a general law of freedom.In obeying this general law, an individual was following an internal moral law which is the result of her or his reasoning. The individual is said to carry out an act for the purpose of being aware of her or his capability to act (Nelson, 118).Furthermore, the concept of sovereignty is magnified in this scene as Andrew was able to assert himself as a rational being when he requested for his freedom since he believed that he had the right to ask for it. According to Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Freedom is a sovereign right.It is aspired by rational beings who view themselves as beings of worth. For Andrew to have been allowed by Mr. Martin the privilege of acknowledging that signifies his acceptance of Andrew’s rational sense of being (Nelson 133). Andrew also validated his human-likeness when he exercised his free will to build his own house and live on his own to find his destiny. He made the decision not because someone ordered him to leave, but he did it out of his interest to discover more things about himself and the world around him.Another revelation in the film supports the philosophy of Kant when it emphasized that an action should be done from duty to have moral worth. Kant maintains that duty does not depend on the realization of the object of action, rather on the principle of volition in performing the action which disregards any object of desire (Nelson 120 -125). Andrew’s duty to still serve the Martin family after being acknowledged as free establishes his moral worth since he performed them out of his own will and not because he was obligated to.The fact that he did things according to his own understanding of them connotes how his behavior and line of thinking has changed from the beginning of the film up to that point Kant also stated that the greatest good or morality of an act should only be identified under the conception of the existing internal moral law, which can only be found in a rational being. Since Andrew’s actions were mostly dictated by his own judgment of things, his behavior reinforces him to become rational, which is the only trait that is ascribed to humans (Nelson 120 -125).Andrew’s realization of his conflicted being came into light when he stopped referring to himself as â€Å"one† and started to use â€Å"I† in the latter part of the movie. â€Å"I† is a term used to identify humans while â€Å"one† is commonly used in identifying a thing or referring to another person. The transition from â€Å"one† to â€Å"I† is a vital indication that Andrew saw himself as a rational being. This occur rence gave Andrew the opportunity to assert his self as though he was part of the human race.There are a lot of peculiar characteristics that outlined Andrew’s uniqueness from other robots. He displayed a higher understanding about human beings because he too exhibited qualities that were considered flawed when compared to other robots of function. He had developed an inclination toward emotionality and creativity, identifiable traits that are uniquely present among human beings. It is essential to take note of this since the very idea of Andrew’s immortality and perfect composition is questioned because of the human-like traits that he possessed.Andrew’s distinct ability to portray human characteristics and personalities makes him a very interesting character to study since he defies the natural laws of reason regarding free will. His possession and understanding of such ideas like emotions, mortality, free will and discernment creates tension within his nature as it was not expected of him to possess such qualities. The film tackled the very notion of humanity, arguing how to determine the boundaries of being human.In the movie, Andrew contended that being human should not only be based upon the physical attributes that defines humanity; it should also be rooted on the principles of individual comprehension and the concept of death.Andrew gave up his mortality in order to be accepted as human. Although in the film, it would seem that Andrew’s nature cannot be changed for his metaphysical make-up is a robot, his assertion of his self and the idea of being recognized as part of the human race is a trait of a rational being.Kant lucidly explains the complexities of the human condition when he states that all individuals should be treated as ends and never merely as a means. He stresses that the rights of an individual must be upheld through the pursuance of equality before the law and the acquisition of education that leads to enligh tenment. Based on this statement, rationality is characterized by the ability to see oneself as an entity of worth. It is to apply reasoning to verify his or her existence. From the film’s perspective, Mr.Martin had demonstrated Kant’s edict with regard to his involvement in Andrew’s mental progress since he gave Andrew the chance to achieve something that was beyond a robot’s nature. Mr. Martin’s support formulated Andrew’s exceptional voice that lends a humanistic view on life. Andrew’s appreciation for life was borne out of Mr. Martin’s subjective treatment of the robot as a being of worth. All of these things mentioned by Kant are found within Andrew’s being. If this is what defines humanity as a whole then Andrew is very much human despite his origins.It is through Andrew’s expression of freedom that affirms his humanity. Conclusion The film attempts to blur opinions about morality and humanity; both terms ar e used interchangeably to affirm the existence of human beings.It takes apart human reasoning through the being of a robot and relays its sentiments about the world in a self-imposing way. The views of Bentham, Rousseau and Kant explain partially the complex nature of humanity found in the film and how it has affected the way people have defined their existence.It is a movie that challenges each individual to look closely at her or his imperfections and render appreciation for the uniqueness each one possesses. As difficult as it is to fully grasp the concept, it is important to analyze the film as a tool of introspection into the consciousness of our rationality as humans since it questions the very essence of how we understand our existence. Work Cited Nelson, Brian R. Western Political Thought: From Socrates to the Age of Ideology. 2nd ed. New York: Prentice Hall, 1995.

The Delphi Technique: Making Sense of Consensus

A peer-reviewed electronic journal. Copyright is retained by the first or sole author, who grants right of first publication to the Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation. Permission is granted to distribute this article for nonprofit, educational purposes if it is copied in its entirety and the journal is credited. Volume 12, Number 10, August 2007 ISSN 1531-7714 The Delphi Technique: Making Sense Of Consensus Chia-Chien Hsu, The Ohio State University & Brian A. Sandford, Oklahoma State University The Delphi technique is a widely used and accepted method for gathering data from respondents within their domain of expertise.The technique is designed as a group communication process which aims to achieve a convergence of opinion on a specific real-world issue. The Delphi process has been used in various fields of study such as program planning, needs assessment, policy determination, and resource utilization to develop a full range of alternatives, explore or expose underlying ass umptions, as well as correlate judgments on a topic spanning a wide range of disciplines. The Delphi technique is well suited as a method for consensus-building by using a series of questionnaires delivered using multiple iterations to collect data from a panel of selected subjects.Subject selection, time frames for conducting and completing a study, the possibility of low response rates, and unintentionally guiding feedback from the respondent group are areas which should be considered when designing and implementing a Delphi study. The Delphi technique, mainly developed by Dalkey and Helmer (1963) at the Rand Corporation in the 1950s, is a widely used and accepted method for achieving convergence of opinion concerning real-world knowledge solicited from experts within certain topic areas.Predicated on the rationale that, â€Å"two heads are better than one, or†¦ n heads are better than one† (Dalkey, 1972, p. 15), the Delphi technique is designed as a group communicatio n process that aims at conducting detailed examinations and discussions of a specific issue for the purpose of goal setting, policy investigation, or predicting the occurrence of future events (Ulschak, 1983; Turoff & Hiltz, 1996; Ludwig, 1997). Common surveys try to identify â€Å"what is,† whereas the Delphi technique attempts to address â€Å"what could/should be† (Miller, 2006).In the literature, Delphi has been applied in various fields such as program planning, needs assessment, policy determination, and resource utilization. Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafson (1975) specifically indicate that the Delphi technique can be used for achieving the following objectives: 1. To determine or develop a range of possible program alternatives; 2. To explore or expose underlying assumptions or information leading to different judgments; 3. To seek out information which may generate a consensus on the part of the respondent group; 4.To correlate informed judgments on a topic spanning a wide range of disciplines, and; 5. To educate the respondent group as to the diverse and interrelated aspects of the topic (p. 11). CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE The Delphi technique is well suited as a means and method for consensus-building by using a series of questionnaires to collect data from a panel of selected subjects (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963; Dalkey, 1969; Linstone & Turoff, 1975; Lindeman, 1981; Martino, 1983; Young & Jamieson, 2001).Delphi, in contrast to other data gathering and analysis techniques, employs multiple iterations designed to Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique develop a consensus of opinion concerning a specific topic. Ludwig (1994) indicates: Iterations refer to the feedback process. The process was viewed as a series of rounds; in each round every participant worked through a questionnaire which was returned to the researcher who collected, edited, and returned to every participan t a statement of the position of the whole group and the participant’s own position.A summation of comments made each participant aware of the range of opinions and the reasons underlying those opinions (p. 55). More specifically, the feedback process allows and encourages the selected Delphi participants to reassess their initial judgments about the information provided in previous iterations. Thus, in a Delphi study, the results of previous iterations regarding specific statements and/or items can change or be modified by individual panel members in later iterations based on their ability to review and assess the comments and feedback provided by the other Delphi panelists.Other notable characteristics inherent with using the Delphi technique are the ability to provide anonymity to respondents, a controlled feedback process, and the suitability of a variety of statistical analysis techniques to interpret the data (Dalkey, 1972; Ludlow, 1975; Douglas, 1983). These characteri stics are designed to offset the shortcomings of conventional means of pooling opinions obtained from a group interaction (i. e. , influences of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure for conformity) (Dalkey, 1972).One of the primary characteristics and advantages of the Delphi process is subject anonymity which can reduce the effects of dominant individuals which often is a concern when using group-based processes used to collect and synthesize information (Dalkey, 1972). Additionally, the issue of confidentiality is facilitated by geographic dispersion of the subjects as well as the use of electronic communication such as e-mail to solicit and exchange information.As such, certain downsides associated with group dynamics such as manipulation or coercion to conform or adopt a certain viewpoint can be minimized (Helmer & Rescher, 1959; Oh, 1974; Adams, 2001). Controlled feedback in the Delphi process is designed to reduce the effect of noise. Based upon Dalkey (1972), noise is that communication which occurs in a group process which both distorts the data and deals with group and/or individual interests rather than focusing on problem solving.As a result, the information developed from this kind of communication generally consists of bias not related to the purposes of the study. Basically, the controlled feedback process consists of a well organized summary of the prior iteration intentionally distributed to the subjects which allows each participant an opportunity to generate additional insights and more thoroughly clarify 2 the information developed by previous iterations.Through the operation of multiple iterations, subjects are expected to become more problem-solving oriented, to offer their opinions more insightfully, and to minimize the effects of noise. Finally, the ability to use statistical analysis techniques is a practice which further reduces the potential of group pressure for conformity (Dalkey, 1972). More specifically, statistical ana lysis can ensure that opinions generated by each subject of a Delphi study are well represented in the final iteration because, â€Å"at the end of the exercise there may still be a significant spread in individual opinions† Dalkey, 1972, p. 21). That is, each subject would have no pressure, either real or perceived, to conform to another participant’s responses that may originate from obedience to social norms, customs, organizational culture, or standing within a profession. The tools of statistical analysis allow for an objective and impartial analysis and summarization of the collected data. THE DELPHI PROCESS Theoretically, the Delphi process can be continuously iterated until consensus is determined to have been achieved.However, Cyphert and Gant (1971), Brooks (1979), Ludwig (1994, 1997), and Custer, Scarcella, and Stewart (1999) point out that three iterations are often sufficient to collect the needed information and to reach a consensus in most cases. The fol lowing discussion, however, provides guidelines for up to four iterations in order to assist those who decide to use the Delphi process as a data collection technique when it is determined that additional iterations beyond three are needed or valuable. Round 1: In the first round, the Delphi process traditionally begins with an open-ended questionnaire.The open-ended questionnaire serves as the cornerstone of soliciting specific information about a content area from the Delphi subjects (Custer, Scarcella, & Stewart, 1999). After receiving subjects’ responses, investigators need to convert the collected information into a well-structured questionnaire. This questionnaire is used as the survey instrument for the second round of data collection. It should be noted that it is both an acceptable and a common modification of the Delphi process format to use a structured questionnaire in Round 1 that is based upon an extensive review of the literature.Kerlinger (1973) noted that the use of a modified Delphi process is appropriate if basic information concerning the target issue is available and usable. Round 2: In the second round, each Delphi participant receives a second questionnaire and is asked to review the items summarized by the investigators based on the information provided in the first round. Accordingly, Delphi panelists may be required to rate or â€Å"rank-order Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique items to establish preliminary priorities among items.As a result of round two, areas of disagreement and agreement are identified† (Ludwig, 1994, p. 54-55). In some cases, Delphi panelists are asked to state the rationale concerning rating priorities among items (Jacobs, 1996). In this round, consensus begins forming and the actual outcomes can be presented among the participants’ responses (Jacobs, 1996). 3 Rescher (1959), Klee (1972), and Oh (1974) concur that choosing individuals who are simply knowledgeable concerning the target issue is not sufficient nor recommended.Considering the necessity of selecting the most qualified individuals, Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafson (1975) specifically state that three groups of people are well qualified to be subjects of a Delphi study. The authors recommend: â€Å"(1) the top management decision makers who will utilize the outcomes of the Delphi study; (2) the professional staff members together with their support team; and (3) the respondents to the Delphi questionnaire whose judgments are being sought† (p. 85). Delphi subjects should be highly trained and competent within the specialized area of knowledge related to the target issue.Investigators need to closely examine and seriously consider the qualifications of Delphi subjects. Oh (1974) indicates that choosing appropriate subjects is generally based on the judgment and discretion of the principal investigators. Jones and Twiss (1978) state that the prin cipal investigators of a Delphi study should identify and select the most appropriate individuals through a nomination process. Ludwig (1994) also states that, â€Å"solicitation of nominations of well-known and respected individuals from the members within the target groups of experts was recommended† (p. 2). Generally, the pool of selecting possible Delphi subjects is likely to use positional leaders (Kaplan, 1971; Ludwig, 1994), to follow a review of authors of publications in the literature (Meyer, 1992; Miller, 2001), and/or to make contacts with those who have firsthand relationships with a particular issue (Jones, 1975; Anderson & Schneider, 1993). The latter basically consists of individuals who are primary stakeholders with various interests related to the target issue or research effort.Concerning the appropriate number of subjects to involve in a Delphi study, Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafson (1975) recommend that researchers should use the minimally sufficient n umber of subjects and should seek to verify the results through follow-up explorations. Ludwig (1994) notes that the number of experts used in a Delphi study is â€Å"generally determined by the number required to constitute a representative pooling of judgments and the information processing capability of the research team† (p. 52). However, what constitutes an optimal number of subjects in a Delphi study never reaches a consensus in the literature.Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafson (1975) suggest that ten to fifteen subjects could be sufficient if the background of the Delphi subjects is homogeneous. In contrast, if various reference groups are involved in a Delphi study, more subjects are anticipated to Round 3: In the third round, each Delphi panelist receives a questionnaire that includes the items and ratings summarized by the investigators in the previous round and are asked to revise his/her judgments or â€Å"to specify the reasons for remaining outside the consensu s† (Pfeiffer, 1968, p. 52). This round gives Delphi panelists an opportunity to make further clarifications of both the information and their judgments of the relative importance of the items. However, compared to the previous round, only a slight increase in the degree of consensus can be expected (Weaver, 1971; Dalkey & Rourke, 1972; Anglin, 1991; Jacobs, 1996). Round 4: In the fourth and often final round, the list of remaining items, their ratings, minority opinions, and items achieving consensus are distributed to the panelists.This round provides a final opportunity for participants to revise their judgments. It should be remembered that the number of Delphi iterations depends largely on the degree of consensus sought by the investigators and can vary from three to five (Delbecq, Van de Ven, Gustafson, 1975; Ludwig, 1994). Subject Selection Regarding the selection of subjects for a Delphi study, choosing the appropriate subjects is the most important step in the entire p rocess because it directly relates to the quality of the results generated (Judd, 1972; Taylor & Judd, 1989; Jacobs, 1996).Since the Delphi technique focuses on eliciting expert opinions over a short period of time, the selection of Delphi subjects is generally dependent upon the disciplinary areas of expertise required by the specific issue. Regarding any set standards of selecting Delphi subjects, there is, in fact, no exact criterion currently listed in the literature concerning the selection of Delphi participants. That is, â€Å"throughout the Delphi literature, the definition of [Delphi subjects] has remained ambiguous† (Kaplan, 1971, p. 24).Regarding the criteria used to guide the selection of Delphi subjects, individuals are considered eligible to be invited to participate in a Delphi study if they have somewhat related backgrounds and experiences concerning the target issue, are capable of contributing helpful inputs, and are willing to revise their initial or previo us judgments for the purpose of reaching or attaining consensus (Pill, 1971; Oh, 1974). Helmer and Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique be needed.Witkin and Altschuld (1995) note that the approximate size of a Delphi panel is generally under 50, but more have been employed. Ludwig (1997) documents that, â€Å"the majority of Delphi studies have used between 15 and 20 respondents† (p. 2). In sum, the size of Delphi subjects is variable (Delbecq, Van de Ven, & Gustafson, 1975). If the sample size of a Delphi study is too small, these subjects may not be considered as having provided a representative pooling of judgments regarding the target issue.If the sample size is too large, the drawbacks inherent within the Delphi technique such as potentially low response rates and the obligation of large blocks of time by the respondents and the researcher(s) can be the result. Time Requirements Conducting a Delphi study can be time- consuming. Specifically, when the instrument of a Delphi study consists of a large number of statements, subjects will need to dedicate large blocks of time to complete the questionnaires.Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafson (1975), Ulschak (1983), and Ludwig, (1994) recommend that a minimum of 45 days for the administration of a Delphi study is necessary. With regard to the time management between iterations, Delbecq et al. (1975) note that giving two weeks for Delphi subjects to respond to each round is encouraged. Ludwig (1994) indicates, â€Å"a drawback to Delphi was that the questionnaire method may slow the process greatly as several days or weeks may pass between rounds† (p. 54).More specifically, since developing the instrument, collecting the data, and administering the questionnaire are interconnected between iterations, ensuring Delphi subjects respond to the investigators on time does in many ways either promote or prohibit the ability of the investigators in analy zing the data, developing a new instrument based upon the prior responses, and distributing subsequent questionnaires in a timely fashion. These are challenging aspects of conducting a Delphi study and do require proper planning and management. The use and prevalence of electronic technologies (i. e. e-mail, teleconferencing, etc. ) may facilitate those who are interested in using the Delphi technique. Witkin and Altschuld (1995) note that electronic technology provides an opportunity for individuals to more easily employ the Delphi process by taking advantages of, â€Å"(1) the storage, processing, and speed of transmission capabilities of computers; (2) the maintenance of respondent anonymity, and; (3) the potential for rapid feedback† (p. 204). Data Analysis Regarding data analysis, decision rules must be established to assemble and organize the judgments and insights provided by Delphi subjects.However, the kind and type 4 of criteria to use to both define and determine c onsensus in a Delphi study is subject to interpretation. Basically, consensus on a topic can be decided if a certain percentage of the votes falls within a prescribed range (Miller, 2006). One criterion recommends that consensus is achieved by having 80 percent of subjects’ votes fall within two categories on a seven-point scale (Ulschak, 1983). Green (1982) suggests that at least 70 percent of Delphi subjects need to rate three or higher on a four point Likert-type scale and the median has to be at 3. 5 or higher. Scheibe, Skutsch, and Schofer (1975) reveal that the use of percentage measures is inadequate. They suggest that a more reliable alternative is to measure the stability of subjects’ responses in successive iterations. In the Delphi process, data analysis can involve both qualitative and quantitative data. Investigators need to deal with qualitative data if classic Delphi studies, which use open-ended questions to solicit subjects’ opinions, are conduc ted in the initial iteration.Subsequent iterations are to identify and hopefully achieve the desired level of consensus as well as any changes of judgments among panelists. The major statistics used in Delphi studies are measures of central tendency (means, median, and mode) and level of dispersion (standard deviation and inter-quartile range) in order to present information concerning the collective judgments of respondents (Hasson, Keeney, & McKenna, 2000). Generally, the uses of median and mode are favored. However, in some cases, as manifested by Murray and Jarman (1987), the mean is also workable.Witkin (1984) questions the appropriateness of using the mean to measure the subjects’ responses if scales used in Delphi studies are not delineated at equal intervals. In the literature, the use of median score, based on Likert-type scale, is strongly favored (Hill & Fowles, 1975; Eckman, 1983; Jacobs, 1996). As Jacobs (1996) states, â€Å"considering the anticipated consensus of opinion and the skewed expectation of responses as they were compiled, the median would inherently appear best suited to reflect the resultant convergence of opinion† (p. 57).The use of mode is also suitable when reporting data in the Delphi process. Ludwig (1994) specifically addressed that â€Å"the Delphi process has a tendency to create convergence, and though this was usually to a single point, there was the possibility of polarization or clustering of the results around two or more points. In these instances, the mean or median could be misleading† (p. 57). CONSIDERING DELPHI SHORTCOMINGS AND WEAKNESSES Potential of Low Response Rates Due to the multiple feedback processes inherent and integral to the concept and use of the Delphi process, thePractical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique potential exists for low response rates and striving to maintain robust feedback can be a challenge. â€Å"In the Delphi techniq ue, [poor response rate] is magnified fourfold because a maximum of four surveys may be sent to the same panelists† (Witkin & Altschuld, 1995, p. 196). If a certain portion of the subjects discontinue their responses during various stages of the Delphi process, the quality of information obtained could be discounted or at least critically scrutinized.As such, Ludwig (1994) specifically addresses subject motivation as the key to the successful implementation of a Delphi study and investigators need to play an active role in this area to help ensure as high a response rate as possible. Consumption of Large Blocks of Time The Delphi technique can also be time-consuming and laborious. Unlike other data collection techniques such as the telephone survey and the face-to-face administration, which can be simultaneously conducted by a group of people and can be completed in a short period of time if the sample size is small, the Delphi technique is terative and sequential. As a result , the necessity of taking large block of time to successively complete a Delphi process is inescapable. Ludwig (1994) indicates that, â€Å"a drawback to Delphi was that the questionnaire method may slow the process greatly as several days or weeks may pass between rounds† (p. 54). Optimally speaking, the iteration characteristics of the Delphi process provide the opportunities for investigators and subjects to improve the accuracy of the results.In contrast, the same characteristic also increases the workload of investigators and the amount of time needed to successfully complete the data collection process (Cunliffe, 2002). Potential of Molding Opinions The iteration characteristics of the Delphi technique can potentially enable investigators to mold opinions (Altschuld, 2003). An experiment, conducted by Scheibe, Skutsch, and Schofer (1975), indicated that Delphi subjects would rate their responses differently after receiving a distorted feedback.Dalkey and Helmer (1963) a lso noted that, â€Å"some ‘leading’ by the experimenters inevitably resulted from the selection of the information supplied† (p. 467). Moreover, Cyphert and Gant (1971) illustrated that a statement in their study was initially rated below average. However, Delphi subjects rated the statement above average after receiving false feedback. Therefore, Cyphert and Gant (1971) concluded that the Delphi technique could, â€Å"be used to mold opinion as well as to collect [data]† (p. 273).Indeed, â€Å"subtle pressure to conform with group ratings† was one of the major drawbacks in the Delphi technique (Witkin & Altschuld, 1995, p. 188). Delphi investigators need to be cognizant, exercise caution, and implement the proper safeguards in dealing with this issue. 5 Potential of Identifying General Statements vs. Specific Topic Related Information An assumption concerning Delphi participants is that they are equivalent in knowledge and experience (Altschuld & Thomas, 1991). However, this assumption might not be justified.More specifically, the expertise of Delphi panelists could be unevenly distributed, especially in the field of high technology (Marchant, 1988; Altschuld & Thomas, 1991). â€Å"Some panelists may have much more in-depth knowledge of certain topics, whereas other panelists are more knowledgeable about different topics† (Altschuld & Thomas, 1991, p. 187). Therefore, subjects who have less in-depth knowledge of certain topics are unable to specify the most important statements which have been identified by those subjects who possess in-depth knowledge concerning the target issue.The outcomes of a Delphi study could be the results of identifying a series of general statements rather than an in-depth exposition of the topic (Altschuld & Thomas, 1991). SUMMARY The Delphi technique provides those involved or interested in engaging in research, evaluation, fact-finding, issue exploration, or discovering what is actually k nown or not known about a specific topic a flexible and adaptable tool to gather and analyze the needed data. Subject selection and the time frames for conducting and completing a Delphi study are two areas which should be considered carefully prior to initiating the study.The additional precautions concerning low response rates, unintentionally guiding feedback, and surveying panelists about their limited knowledge of the topic rather than soliciting their expert judgments should also be built into the design and implementation of the study. The Delphi technique has and will continue to be an important data collection methodology with a wide variety of applications and uses for people who want to gather information from those who are immersed and imbedded in the topic of interest and can provide real-time and real-world knowledge. REFERENCES Adams, S. J. (2001).Projecting the next decade in safety management: A Delphi technique study. Professional Safety, 46 (10), 26-29. Altschuld, J. W. (2003). Delphi technique. Lecture, Applied evaluation design. The Ohio State University. Altschuld, J. W. , & Thomas, P. M. (1991). Considerations in the application of a modified scree test for Delphi survey data. Evaluation Review, 15 (2), 179-188. Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique Anderson, D. H. , & Schneider, I. E. (1993). Using the Delphi process to identify significant recreation research-based innovations.Journal of Park and Recreation Administration, 11 (1), 25-36. 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Authors Chia-Chien Hsu Post-doctoral Studies The Ohio State University 393 Schrock Road Worthington, OH 43085 Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique Tel: (614) 885-0763 E-mail: hsu. 127 [at] osu. edu Brian A. Sandford Assistant Professor 214 Willard Hall Occupational Education Oklahoma State University Stillwater, Oklahoma 74074 405-744-3461 brian. sandford [at] okstate. edu 8